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Note that the difference with the satellite temperatures isn’t as pronounced as with CFSv2 Tsfc data, but the Had CRUT4 data has more of an upward trend: The UAH LT global anomaly image for October, 2017 should be available in the next few days here.The new Version 6 files should also be updated in the coming days, and are located here: Lower Troposphere: Stratosphere: area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010).

The new Version 6 files should also be updated in the coming days, and are located here: Lower Troposphere: Stratosphere: diversion from global warming topics.

The simple little probability problem below has apparently been debated for many years.

an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. TROPICS 2016 01 0.55 0.72 0.38 0.85 2016 02 0.85 1.18 0.53 1.00 2016 03 0.76 0.98 0.54 1.10 2016 04 0.72 0.85 0.58 0.93 2016 05 0.53 0.61 0.44 0.70 2016 06 0.33 0.48 0.17 0.37 2016 07 0.37 0.44 0.30 0.47 2016 08 0.43 0.54 0.32 0.49 2016 09 0.45 0.51 0.39 0.37 2016 10 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.47 2016 11 0.46 0.43 0.49 0.38 2016 12 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.24 2017 01 0.32 0.31 0.34 0.10 2017 02 0.38 0.57 0.19 0.07 2017 03 0.22 0.36 0.09 0.05 2017 04 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.21 2017 05 0.44 0.39 0.49 0.41 2017 06 0.21 0.33 0.10 0.39 2017 07 0.29 0.30 0.27 0.51 2017 08 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.46 2017 09 0.54 0.51 0.57 0.53 2017 10 0.63 0.67 0.59 0.47 The linear temperature trend of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies from January 1979 through October 2017 remains at 0.13 C/decade.

The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed as has the distinction between calendar months. Why Are the Satellite and Surface Data Recently Diverging?

The Monty Hall Problem There are three doors, and behind one of them is a new car, and behind the other two doors are goats. You choose door #1, knowing you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning.

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