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And the vertical axis doesn’t say what the units are (average retail price per kilogram, it turns out). Someone who has won a lot of money betting on rugby this year is much less likely to keep doing well: there was probably luck involved.Someone who won a lot of money on Lotto this year is almost certain to do worse next year: we can be pretty sure the wins were just luck. Morningstar publishes ratings of mutual funds, with one to five stars based on past performance.And since net performance is made up of (1) stock picking minus (2) fees, you’d expect funds with low fees to have, on average, persistent slightly-better-than-average performance.

This is so there is not anxiety of worrying about where him or her is or what him or her is doing.

Seeing a headline like might cause an unwary person to think that eating purple kumara would reduce their risk of colon cancer by seventy-five per cent.

The Wall Street Journal published an article saying (a) investors believe these are predictive of future performance and (b) they’re wrong.

Morningstar then fought back, saying (a) we tell them it’s based on past performance, not a prediction and (b) it is, too, predictive. Matt Levine (of Bloomberg; annoying free registration) and his readers had an interesting explanation (scroll way down) Several readers, though, proposed an explanation.

It’s still a neat example of how you need to focus on the right outcome measurement.

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